Tool

How far can this client scale?

Work out what each order leaves after its own costs, then see where weekly profit peaks as spend climbs and CPA gets worse. Plan in ranges, test before committing, and update the model with what really happens.

Numbers stay in this browser only. Nothing is sent anywhere.

1The order

What one order is worth once its own costs are paid. Put AOV and costs on the same basis, ideally excluding VAT. Blank costs count as zero.

Currency Average order value (AOV) £ Product cost per order £ What the goods in an average order cost. Fulfilment and shipping per order £ Pick, pack, postage and courier. Payment fee % of AOV Card or checkout fee. Put any fixed fee per order under other costs. Other variable cost per order £ Packaging, per-order app fees, anything else that comes with each order. Returns and refunds optional % of revenue Refunded orders still carry their costs here, which is the cautious view.

2Today

Where the account is now. Count paid orders only, so ads aren't credited with orders that would have come anyway.

Current weekly orders a week Test CPA £ Today's cost per order at this volume. Weekly fixed costs optional £ Costs that don't move with orders: wages, rent, software, fees. Leave blank to see profit before overheads.

3Scaling steps

The weekly volumes to model. Cheap audiences run out first, so each step up costs more per order than the one before.

Target weekly orders

CPA gets worse per step Assumption

Low end% to High end%

A starting guess, not a fact. Each step's CPA is this much worse than the step before. Replace it with what a real test shows (section 4).

4Cash flow

Ad spend goes out now. The money from those orders lands later. This sizes the gap.

Days until revenue lands days From the day the ad money is spent to the day the customer's payment reaches the bank. Product, delivery and other order costs are also paid before the revenue landsUntick if supplier credit terms cover the gap.

See the results

1Baseline

Contribution margin is what each order leaves after its variable costs, before ad spend. It is also the breakeven CPA: pay more than this for an order and that order loses money.

2Scenarios

Each step up, CPA gets worse by your range: the best case uses the low end, the worst case the high end, the middle case the midpoint. Profit is weekly, after ad spend and any fixed costs. The peak is the ceiling: past it, extra orders cost more than they bring in.

3Cash flow

Cash tied up is the ad spend (plus order costs, if ticked) for the days before revenue lands, at each volume. Extra over today is what has to be found to step up. It assumes spend leaves the account the day it is spent, so credit terms on the ad account make the real gap smaller.

4Test before committing

Before committing, run 2 to 3 times today's spend for a month or two. Enter what actually happened. The model treats the test as one step up, checks it against your range, then rebuilds the scenarios from the real CPA.

Weekly orders during the test a week Actual CPA from the test £

Using the model

Work in ranges. The ceiling is a band between the best and worst cases, not one number. Plan to the middle, fund for the worst.
Keep it simple. A few honest inputs beat a detailed model full of guesses.
Update it. Every real CPA from a test or a step up replaces a guess. Re-run this after each one.